A half-century of climate change in major agricultural regions: Trends, impacts, and surprises

David Lobell

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July 16, 2025

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Summary

Over the past 50 years, major agricultural regions around the world have experienced a steady rise in temperatures and increased atmospheric dryness—trends that are now taking a measurable toll on global food production. A recent study published in PNAS analyzed these changes across key crop-growing zones and found that three of the five most widely cultivated crops have seen significant yield declines directly linked to climate stress, particularly heat and vapor pressure deficits. While some crops have shown neutral or mixed responses, the overall pattern highlights a concerning vulnerability in our food systems. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies in agriculture, from breeding more resilient crop varieties to rethinking how and where we grow our food in a rapidly changing world.

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David Lobell